Caught in the crossfire of a brutal monthly downturn and a powerful weekly rebound? You’re not alone. Bitcoin’s recent price action has been a classic crypto rollercoaster, leaving investors dizzy and wondering whether this bounce is a genuine recovery or just a temporary pause before more pain. If you’re trying to make sense of the noise and figure out what might come next, you’ve come to the right place. Let’s cut through the hype and look at the data for a clear-eyed Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis.
TL;DR: The State of Bitcoin in November 2025
- At a Crossroads: Bitcoin is currently trading around $91,553. While it has rallied an impressive 9.5% this week, it’s still down over 19% from its 30-day high, putting the market in a state of indecision.
- Volume is Key: Trading volume is robust at over $52 billion in the last 24 hours. This high level of activity during the recent bounce is a positive sign, suggesting strong conviction from buyers.
- Conflicting Signals: The short-term trend is bullish, but the medium-term trend remains bearish. The battle between buyers trying to establish a new floor and sellers taking profits will define the next few weeks.
- Key Levels to Watch: The immediate challenge for Bitcoin is to break through resistance in the $98,000 – $100,000 range. On the downside, holding support above $85,000 is critical to avoid a deeper correction.
What is Bitcoin (BTC)? A Quick Refresher
Before we dive deep into the charts, let’s quickly recap what we’re talking about. Bitcoin (BTC) is the world’s first and most well-known cryptocurrency. It operates on a decentralized peer-to-peer network, meaning no single entity like a bank or government controls it.
Many investors view Bitcoin as “digital gold”—a store of value designed to be a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty due to its fixed supply of 21 million coins. Others are drawn to its potential as a global, censorship-resistant payment system. Regardless of the narrative you subscribe to, its price action is a key barometer for the entire crypto market.
Current Market Conditions: A Tale of Two Trends
Looking at the numbers, we see a fascinating and complex picture. At a price of $91,553, Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at a massive $1.82 trillion, cementing its place as a globally significant asset. But the real story is in the recent price changes.
The last 24 hours have been relatively flat, with a minor 0.06% gain. This suggests the market is taking a breath and consolidating after a big move. That move was the powerful 9.5% rally over the last 7 days. This shows that after a significant drop, buyers stepped in with force, defending lower price levels and pushing the market back up. The high 24-hour volume of over $52 billion adds weight to this rally, indicating it was a well-supported move. However, we can’t ignore the elephant in the room: the painful 19% drop over the last 30 days. This larger trend suggests that sellers were recently in firm control, and the market is still technically in a medium-term downtrend.
On-Chain & Narrative Drivers
While we can’t see the live blockchain data here, experienced analysts are keeping a close eye on key on-chain metrics. One of the most important is exchange flow. A sustained trend of Bitcoin moving off exchanges and into private wallets is typically bullish, as it implies investors are planning to hold for the long term (a behavior known as HODLing). Conversely, a large influx of BTC onto exchanges could signal that more investors are preparing to sell.
The broader market narrative is also crucial. As we are well into 2025, the effects of the last halving event are still a primary topic of conversation, with many models pointing to this period as a key phase in the market cycle. Beyond that, macroeconomic factors are playing an outsized role. Any hints from central banks about interest rate policy or inflation data can send shockwaves through risk assets like Bitcoin. Keep an ear out for news regarding institutional adoption—like a new ETF approval or a major corporation adding BTC to its balance sheet—as these can act as powerful catalysts.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis: Scenarios for the Coming Weeks
Based on the current data, the market could plausibly move in one of three directions. Let’s break down the technicals for each scenario.
Bullish Scenario: The Recovery Continues
In this scenario, the 9.5% weekly rally is the start of a new uptrend. Bitcoin would need to decisively break and hold above the psychological $95,000 level. This would signal that the recent dip was successfully bought and absorbed by the market. If this happens, the next major target would be reclaiming the $100,000 milestone, followed by a test of the previous highs in the $110,000 – $115,000 range from which the 19% correction began. Strong, sustained volume would be essential to confirm this move.
Base Case Scenario: Sideways Chop
This is perhaps the most likely near-term scenario. The market is caught between strong buying pressure (the weekly rally) and significant overhead selling pressure (from those who bought during the 19% drop). This could lead to a period of consolidation where Bitcoin trades within a range, perhaps between support at $85,000 and resistance near $98,000. Price action would be choppy and indecisive as both bulls and bears fight for control.
Bearish Scenario: The Bounce Fades
In the bearish view, the recent 9.5% rally was simply a “dead cat bounce”—a temporary relief rally in a larger downtrend. Here, Bitcoin would fail to break past immediate resistance around $95,000 – $98,000. This rejection would signal that sellers are still in control. The price would then likely roll over and re-test the recent lows. A break below the key support level of $85,000 could trigger a new wave of selling, potentially pushing the price down towards the $75,000 – $80,000 zone.
A Simple Valuation Framework
It’s easy to get lost in short-term price movements. To zoom out, let’s do a simple back-of-the-envelope valuation to frame Bitcoin’s long-term potential. This is not a price prediction, but a thought experiment.
One of the most popular narratives is that Bitcoin is “digital gold.” The total market cap of physical gold is estimated to be around $15 trillion. Let’s assume, for this exercise, that Bitcoin eventually captures 20% of gold’s market share as a globally accepted store of value. This would give Bitcoin a hypothetical market cap of $3 trillion.
With a circulating supply of roughly 19.8 million BTC in late 2025, the math would be:
$3,000,000,000,000 / 19,800,000 BTC = ~$151,500 per BTC.
Again, this is a simplified model. It depends entirely on the “digital gold” narrative playing out and gaining wider adoption. However, it provides a logical framework for how Bitcoin could be valued much higher in the future.
Risks and What to Watch
As always, investing in crypto carries significant risks. Here’s what you should be watching:
- Macroeconomic Environment: Unexpected changes in inflation, employment, or interest rate policies could negatively impact investor appetite for risk assets.
- Regulatory News: Any sudden announcements of strict regulations in major economies remains a persistent risk for the entire crypto market.
- Key Technical Levels: Pay close attention to the support and resistance zones mentioned above ($85k support, $98k resistance). A firm break in either direction will likely signal the next major move.
- Volume Trends: Watch for changes in trading volume. If the price is rising but volume is declining, it can be a warning sign that the rally is losing momentum.
Conclusion: Stay Vigilant
Bitcoin is at a fascinating inflection point. The bulls have shown their strength with a formidable weekly rally, but the bears haven’t given up, as evidenced by the significant monthly drawdown. The next few weeks will be determined by whether the market can build on its recent momentum or if it succumbs to the broader selling pressure.
For traders and investors, this is a time for caution, not complacency. Have a clear plan for each of the three scenarios outlined above. Avoid using excessive leverage, and focus on the key levels that will likely dictate the market’s next direction.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the main resistance level for Bitcoin now?
Based on the recent price action, the key resistance zone to watch is between $98,000 and the psychological barrier of $100,000. A decisive break above this area would be a very bullish signal.
Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
It depends on your timeframe. On a multi-year basis, Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend. However, the 19% drop in the last 30 days puts it in a medium-term downtrend. The current rally is challenging that downtrend, but it hasn’t been broken yet.
How does market volume affect Bitcoin’s price?
Volume is a measure of conviction. A price move (either up or down) that occurs on high volume is generally considered more significant and reliable than a move on low volume. The high volume on the recent 9.5% weekly rally is a positive sign for bulls.
What are the biggest risks to Bitcoin’s price right now?
The biggest risks include negative macroeconomic surprises (like higher-than-expected inflation), unforeseen regulatory crackdowns from major governments, and a technical failure to hold key support levels, which could trigger further selling.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
